AMD certainly would benefit from minimizing Thunderbolt. If Thunderbolt were to catch on, AMD would likely have to purchase components from chief rival, Intel. AMD says that they support USB 3.0 and that Thunderbolt’s speed would be superfluous.
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If Thunderbolt is restricted to Apple devices, there's no doubt that it will fail. Regardless of how popular Apple's products might be today, you'll see Apple-centric companies make devices that utilize the port and other companies simply ignore it. The same as it has always been.
Speed doesn't dictate success. In fact, Firewire 800 was faster than USB 2.0, was it not? The reason why USB 3.0 will succeed and Thunderbolt will fail is simply because USB 3.0 is backwards-compatible. You can plug a load of existing devices into the port regardless of whether they support the increased speed or not. With Thunderbolt, you're re-inventing the wheel and starting from scratch. Sure some peripherals will offer both Thunderbolt and USB 3.0 connectivity down the line and people with knowledge who HAVE both ports will choose Thunderbolt, but the masses will remain on the USB side. Not by preference but by recognition. Thunderbolt will be one of those 'what does this do?' ports.
Thunderbolt is just going to confuse people. Most people won't even know what the hell it is.
I don't think it's going to take off. Just seems like another Firewire.